Super Bowl

Steelers 27 - Cardinals 20.

NFL Win Probability Calculator

Two things I've been interested in for a long time are NFL football and mathematics. This makes a site like Advanced NFL Stats right up my alley. In particular I like the Win Probability Calculator that was recently posted there. You enter a game state, including the score, field position, and time remaining, and the system produces the probability of each team winning the game. I think this could be a great tool for arguments about going for it on 4th down, or for attempting 2-point conversions.

Tactic

Here is a tactic, from another Facebook game. Black to move. (The board is shown from White's perspective; White pawns are moving up the board.)


I'll post the solution later in the comments.

First Post!

For my first real post, here's a chess game from Facebook, with some light comments.

Dixon, G - Eisler, R

1.Nf3 d5 2.d4 Nf6 3.c4 dxc4 4.Nc3 a6 5.e4 b5 6.Be2 c6 7.O-O Bb7 8.Bg5 Be7 9.Qc2 Nbd7 10.Rad1 O-O 11.d5 exd5 12.exd5 Re8 13.Rfe1 h6 14.Bh4

So far I think I have done well through the opening, but now I miscalculate fairly badly to end up in a worse position.

14...Nxd5?! 15.Nxd5 Bxh4 16.Nxh4 Qxh4 17.Nxc7 Qg5 18.g3 Nc5?

This had the idea of going to d3 with the knight, but it doesn't really work. 18...Qc5 is better, and the computer found some interesting ideas with 18...Ne5. For example, 18...Ne5 19.Nxe8 Rxe8 20.f4 Qf6 21.fxe5 Qb6+ 22.Kf1 Qc6 23.Kf2 Qb6+ 24.Kf1 is a draw.

19.Nxe8 Rxe8 20.Bxc4! Rxe1+ 21.Rxe1 Be4 22.Bxf7+

This creates a queen ending with White up a pawn; 22.Rxe4 Nxe4 23.Qxe4 bxc4 24.Qxc4 is a similar ending, with a slightly different pawn structure. This may have been a better option for White, since his extra pawn is on the queenside in this case. He may have been able to create a passed pawn there, which can be quite strong in a queen ending.

22...Kxf7 23.Rxe4 Nxe4 24.Qxe4 Qc1+ 25.Kg2 Qxb2 26.Qb7+ Kf8 27.Qxa6 Qe5 28.Qa8+ Ke7 29.h4 Kf6 30.Qd8+ Kf7 31.Qd2 Qe4+ 32.f3 Qe5 33.Qf4+


White is trying to trade down into a pawn-up king and pawn endgame, but this particular queen trade breaks up his pawn structure and causes him some big problems.

33...Qxf4 34.gxf4 h5!

White won't be able to protect his f4 pawn. Black's king will get to f5, and White will not be able to stay on e3 or g3, since Black has spare pawn moves available. So, White tries taking the b-pawn and creating a pawn race.

35.Kf2 Kf6 36.Ke3 Kf5 37.Kd4 Kxf4 38.Kc5 g5! 39.hxg5 Kxg5 40.Kxb5 h4 41.a4 h3 0-1

Black will win the pawn race.