Close But No Cigar

A friend of mine, who cheers for the Pittsburgh Steelers, has been talking about how close their losses have been this year. The Steelers finished 9-7, but the 7 losses were by a total of only 28 points, so a couple plays one way or the other could have produced a very different result. I'm quite familiar with this line of thinking, since my team is the Chargers, and last year they lost 8 games by a total of only 34 points (including a 1-point loss on a terrible blown call in a game I drove 1000 miles to see. But I digress.) I have my trusty database, so I thought I'd take a look at how these two seasons stack up historically. The following items all consider the years from 1978 through 2008.

• Among all teams that finished at 9-7, the 2009 Steelers' total margin of defeat (28) was the lowest. The next closest were the 1993 Broncos (30) and the 2002 Saints (35).
• The 2009 Steelers' average margin of defeat (4.0) is the lowest among all teams that lost 7 or more games.
• Among all teams that finished at 8-8, the 2008 Chargers' total margin of defeat (34) is tied for the lowest with the 1999 Raiders.
• The 2008 Chargers' average margin of defeat (4.25) is the lowest among all teams that lost 8 or more games. The 2009 Steelers are the only team with 7 losses to have a lower average margin of defeat.

It looks like these two seasons were in fact quite unusual. Here are a few other interesting facts I came across while tabulating these results.

• The 16-0 2007 Patriots are a bit of a special case, but you might say that they hold the record for smallest average margin of defeat, at zero.
• The 1983 Redskins finished 14-2, and their two losses were by one point each.
• The next best average margin of defeat (2.33) was by the 2000 Titans, who finished 13-3 and whose losses were by a total of 7 points.
• The team with the worst average margin of defeat (24.7) was the 1989 Steelers. They actually made the playoffs at 9-7 (unlike this year's Steelers), but had several huge losses, including a 51-0 game against Cleveland. In the playoffs, the Steelers won their first game, and then lost to the Broncos... by 1.